Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 2.007556 2.121478 2.241022 2.376267 2.525572 2.685996 2.872250
2025-06-29 1.813220 1.967371 2.136531 2.337478 2.571746 2.838873 3.170424
2025-07-06 1.676880 1.850634 2.046965 2.287997 2.579902 2.927423 3.381185
2025-07-13 1.613943 1.807546 2.031975 2.315749 2.671671 3.113114 3.719041
2025-07-20 1.568122 1.778558 2.027978 2.351711 2.770885 3.311080 4.089388
2025-07-27 1.530293 1.755063 2.026779 2.387899 2.869460 3.513071 4.485743
2025-08-03 1.475176 1.706232 1.989806 2.373701 2.897751 3.619200 4.754126
2025-08-10 1.425783 1.661440 1.954565 2.358013 2.920634 3.716840 5.018430
2025-08-17 1.378423 1.616628 1.916394 2.335029 2.930039 3.793442 5.256408
2025-08-24 1.334822 1.574508 1.879298 2.310594 2.934387 3.860961 5.485762
2025-08-31 1.305250 1.549110 1.862705 2.312849 2.976518 3.988455 5.834316
2025-09-07 1.283796 1.533232 1.857711 2.330440 3.041616 4.156846 6.281684
2025-09-14 1.244292 1.492524 1.818032 2.297226 3.028550 4.198880 6.502048
2025-09-21 1.206332 1.452634 1.777946 2.261391 3.008949 4.227975 6.701722
2025-09-28 1.167006 1.409635 1.731941 2.214558 2.968804 4.217829 6.818266
2025-10-05 1.154612 1.402563 1.735420 2.240847 3.046546 4.420298 7.426715
2025-10-12 1.145489 1.399460 1.744063 2.274895 3.138753 4.658163 8.171799
2025-10-19 1.136891 1.396646 1.752774 2.309138 3.233340 4.911076 9.023887
2025-10-26 1.114371 1.373713 1.731596 2.295706 3.245180 5.004666 9.491026
2025-11-02 1.092604 1.351199 1.710219 2.280860 3.253332 5.091351 9.963140
2025-11-09 1.069912 1.326767 1.685231 2.259103 3.247712 5.149016 10.368368
2025-11-16 1.047881 1.302716 1.660063 2.235964 3.238096 5.197221 10.760227
2025-11-23 1.033893 1.289729 1.650825 2.238100 3.274345 5.347218 11.527697